Visualizing Technology Hype Cycles: Which Innovations Lived Up to the Hype?

Emerging technology has always captured our collective imagination. From the advent of wireless internet to social networking, these technological innovations have revolutionized the way we live, work, and communicate. However, not all of these innovations become a part of our daily lives, and some even fade into obscurity. Gartner’s Hype Cycle charts the journey of emerging technology from the first public awareness to the point of wider adoption and economic viability. In this blog post, we take a look back at the technological innovations that scaled the summit of the Hype Cycle each year since 2000, and examine which ones lived up to the hype.

Reaching the Peak

As the media searches for the next big thing, certain technologies tend to dominate the headlines. Venture capital flows into the companies racing to bring the tech to market, valuations swell, marketing departments generate excitement, and the expectations of the general public begin to grow as well. One example of this phenomenon at work is the adoption of microblogging. Today, we don’t think twice about posting a tweet or updating our status on Facebook, but a decade ago, the act of posting a short public message was a major shift in the way people used technology to communicate with one another. The intense buzz that sent microblogging towards the top of the Hype Cycle is corroborated by Google Search data.

Living Up to the Hype

A few technologies transcend the hype to transform entire industries. Cloud computing is one such innovation. From the beginning, the analogy of data breaking the shackles of folders and clunky external drives – instead zipping efficiently into the invisible cloud – generated a lot of excitement. Today, Microsoft and Amazon’s cloud computing divisions each make $6-7 billion in revenue per quarter, and that number is still growing at a brisk pace.

Another technology that lived up to its hype is Near Field Communication (NFC) payments. This technology enables contactless payments and is transforming the way people pay for purchases around the world. The global contactless payments market is expected to reach $138.4 billion by 2023.

The Ones That Underwhelmed

Not every technology that grabs the headlines is going to become the next iPhone. Kindle is a classic example of an innovation that had an underwhelming response. During the Christmas season of 2009, Kindle became the most gifted item in Amazon’s history. This watershed moment looked like the end of physical books as the public embraced the e-reader as the new way of consuming text. Fast-forward to today, and only 19% of adults in the U.S. own an e-reader.

m-Commerce is another innovation that failed to live up to the hype. By 2001, more than half of Americans owned mobile phones, and this represented a huge opportunity. Unfortunately, early m-commerce was restricted by the limitations of mobile phones of that time period. It wasn’t until the introduction of smartphones that the concept really took off. Today, nearly half of all online transactions are made via mobile devices.

3D printing was an innovation that reached the fever pitch in 2012. From the $1.4 billion merger of the largest players in the sector to the reports of firearm blueprints circulating the web, people believed that the 3D printer was destined to become the next microwave. In the end, interest in 3D printing leveled off. While it is getting used for prototyping in many different industries, it remains to be seen whether the technology will ever achieve the wide consumer-level adoption that was promised.

What’s Next?

When 2019’s Hype Cycle is released later this year, it remains to be seen which technology will rise to the top. Based on the trajectory from last year, search volume, and current news reports, 5G is a strong competitor.